Friday, February 16, 2007

Moreno effect? (part trois)

Each month this fiscal year, we have been looking at the Courts of Criminal Appeals' output to see if we can recognize a statistically significant diminution in output in the wake of United States v. Moreno, 63 M.J. 129 (C.A.A.F. 2006). Adding the January numbers to the previous months' data from FY 07 and comparing them to the five-year average over Fiscal Years 03-06 yield the following results:

------------FY 07 ------FY 03-06 Oct-Jan average------- Difference
AFCCA: ---6 -----------4---------------------------__------- +2
ACCA: ---- 3-----------4.2 -------------------------------- -1.2
NMCCA: --6 -----------7 ----------------------------_-_---- -1
CGCCA: -- 6 ----------3.6 -------------------------------- +2.4

Obviously neither the Air Force nor Coast Guard data suggest a Moreno effect. Any potential Moreno effect was reduced slightly for the Navy-Marine Corps Court, where the difference between FY 07 and the FY 03-06 average declined from -1.25 to -1. The ACCA difference flattened out even more, moving from -3.25 to -1.2.

We will continue to monitor the numbers.

--Dwight Sullivan

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