New v. Gates: certworthy?

As dedicated CAAFlog readers know, I have been suggesting that the cert petition in New v. Gates, which arises from a collateral review of a court-martial conviction, has a real shot at cert. The case will go to conference this Friday. But the thought occurs to me that I could be like some delusional American Idol contestant who thinks he sounds like John Lennon but actually sings like Lennon's voice when you spin your White Album in reverse searching for backmasks. While I am enthralled by New, it might have no appeal to non-military-justice devotees.

Today we have an important additional data point. And I'm afraid Simon Cowell is telling me that I sing like a cat in a vacuum cleaner. No, the bad news is actually that Tom Goldtein's Conference Call didn't pick New as one of Friday's cases to watch. While Goldstein et al. aren't infallible, this does suggest that I have been looking at the world through olive-drab-colored glasses. So the CAAFlog Magic 8 Ball has changed its prognosis for New from "Outlook good" to "Very doubtful." Oh well, at least one justice cared enough to ask the SG to reply to the cert petition.

Tune in next Monday to see what the justices decide on Friday.

And, by the way, I do sing like a cat in a vacuum cleaner.