Friday, April 20, 2007

The counter

Today's CAAF daily journal update apparently got rained out, so we're still at 55.

Barry Bonds singled in the first tonight, so at the moment he's still at 4 homers for the season. Of course, if A-Rod continues at his current pace, he'll break Aaron's record before Bonds does. (Mathematically, that assertion isn't actually true, but 12 homers in 15 games is a prodigious pace. If he continued at this rate, A-Rod would hit 129.6 homers this season. But even if we round that six-tenths of a homer up, that would still leave him with just 594 homers.)
Posted by Dwight Sullivan at 10:39 PM

3 comments:

John O'Connor said...

Maybe it should be the Josh Hamilton watch (a 36th round pick by some smart guy in my roto league). At a pace of a homer every five at bats, he'll be passing Hammerin' Hank any day now.

Sat Apr 21, 09:41:00 AM EDT
Dwight Sullivan said...

Josh Hamilton is a piker compared to A-Rod! I'll extrapolate young Josh's season homer total in the most generous way possible. He has hit 5 homers in 32 at bats. Let's assume he continues to hit homers at the current pace throughout the season. Let's also assume a total of 650 at bats, which would be at the high end of typical at bat totals. That would give him a mere 101.56 season homer total -- nowhere near A-Rod's almost doubling of Barry Bonds' single season homer record (73 in 2001).

(I hope everyone realizes that JO'C and I are intentionally demonstrating the dangers of statistical extrapolation based on an inadequate sample size in this conversation -- we aren't serioulsy suggesting triple digit homer totals for a season.)

Sat Apr 21, 10:56:00 AM EDT
Anonymous said...

Two in a row for Barry, he may have more homers than CAAF grants before May.

Mon Apr 23, 06:47:00 AM EDT

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